NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) Week 8

Another winning week in the books...

Another winning week for me on the NFL ATS picks as the Redskins held serve at home and the Texans plunged the Jaguars deeper into despair. Jacksonville and Philadelphia are in a similar spot just a year after they could have met in the Super Bowl. They also ironically meet in London where the losing fan base may want to leave them should they fall again.

 

Record: 22-11-2 (53-32-3 last year)

 

Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Oct. 28.

 

Here are this week's best NFL picks against the spread:

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4), 9:30 a.m. (London)

The Eagles' defense has been highly underwhelming against the pass this season, as evidenced by gagging a 17-point fourth-quarter lead against Cam Newton and the Panthers. Philadelphia has been disappointing, proving that the Super Bowl hangover is 100 percent real. The good thing for the Eagles is that Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler can't throw the football very well. The Jags have thrown for less than 200 yards four times this season and have had massive issues with turnovers. Jacksonville's defensive issue is against the run and the Eagles just won't do it. They have run for no more than 120 yards in any game this season despite having a solid group of running backs to use. This is Philadelphia's first trip to London while the Jags are regulars at doing this. To me, this one could be a punt fest and the first team to 20 could win (if either team gets to 20 in the first place). Give me the under in this one. SELECTION: Under 42.5

 

Washington Redskins (4-2) at New York Giants (1-6), 1 p.m.

Does anyone else think it's odd that the Giants traded Eli Apple and Damon Harrison this week and yet the line really hasn't moved at all? Apple is a decent cornerback while Harrison is a run stuffer up the middle. New York has been close but no cigar in two of its last three games. They showed flashes on offense and the pass rush generated a few sacks then collapsed in coverage against the Falcons on Monday night. Washington has won two straight and three of its last four yet this line is exceedingly tight. To me, that means there's a bit of a trap involved with this one and I'll take a look at the home team. We know there should be some fireworks between Odell Beckham Jr. and Josh Norman. I also think that if New York commits to giving Saquon Barkley the ball consistently, then the Giants could succeed. Both the Panthers and Cowboys got away from the run unreasonably quick and that helped in their road losses to the Skins. I know about the quick turnaround and that Washington is the better team, but this line should be bigger. Last year, New York won at home 18-10 and lost in DC 20-10. This line reeks out loud so I'll take a shot here. SELECTION: Giants +1

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Detroit Lions (3-3), 1 p.m.

The Seahawks are coming off a bye and will face the Lions in Detroit. Seattle has won three of its last four by pretty much beating up on bad competition. The Seahawks' wins have come over Dallas, Arizona and Oakland, a collection of teams that doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence. They lost at Denver and at Chicago to go along with a two-point home loss to the Rams. Detroit also won three of four with victories over New England, Green Bay and Miami. The Lions have actually discovered a run game which will help them in this one. Seattle no longer has the "Legion of Boom" and has a shell of a defense. Detroit's D has actually held five of its six opponents to less than 250 passing yards as Darius Slay is one of the best corners in football that no one talks about. The Lions lost to the Seahawks in Seattle 26-6 last year in a game that was a mismatch of sorts. Now Detroit is home for this one and I think the Lions play better there and will get the win. SELECTION: Detroit -2.5

 

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (4-2), 1 p.m.

Two of the better defenses in the league play in Carolina. Baltimore is holding opponents to 14.4 points and 280.6 yards per game. The Ravens have played five unders in seven contests this season. The Panthers' offense is predicated on Christian McCaffrey leading the way on the ground, which helps Cam Newton out. People will forget that Carolina's offense was stuck in the mud for three quarters last week before orchestrating an impressive comeback. Baltimore's offense isn't that scary either despite some of the numbers. The Ravens really can't run the ball that well, especially against a Panthers front seven that helped hold opponents to 95 rushing yards per game. This number is generously high to me. SELECTION: Under 44

 

New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2), 8:20 p.m.

It's a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round game that produced the "Minneapolis Miracle." After losing their opener to Tampa Bay, the Saints have rattled off five straight with three of those victories coming by one score. New Orleans has been running it well with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The duo provides a different look to the defense. The problem for the Saints has been that side of the ball, which has experienced many a breakdown this season. They did manage to hold down the Browns and Redskins at home and the Giants on the road. This is New Orleans' fourth road game in a five-week span so that could show up here. Minnesota has won three straight, bouncing back nicely from the tie with Green Bay followed by back-to-back losses to Buffalo and the Rams. Kirk Cousins has delivered in his first season with the Vikings and the defense is starting to round into form. Last year, Minnesota beat New Orleans twice, both times at home. The Saints struggled to run the ball with much success in both games. The Vikings have won 15 of their last 20 home games straight up, covering 14 of those. In a toss-up situation like this, I usually lean to the home team especially one that has as tough of a home-field advantage as I've seen in the NFL. SELECTION: Vikings Pick

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

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