Top 10 Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIV (San Francisco vs. Kansas City)

Here are my favorite props for the big game with some of the best value you can find

Super Bowl LIV (54) between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is going to be a fantastic affair, and there is once again an opportunity to make some money with the props. Before we get into the selections, here is some advice. As I've said in my previous articles, the key to the props is envisioning how you think the contest will go before even looking at the prices.

 

I detailed my selection here, so when I pull these up, I'm going off what I believe will happen. I have two categories of props with the minus-priced ones that I'm really sure will win as well as the underdog ones that have good value despite having a lesser shot at winning. With that, let's take a look at what is being offered at the world-famous Superbook at Westgate.

 

Favorite Props (-110 or worse)

 

Over 102.5 yardage in all the touchdowns (-110)

To me, if you think this game is an over, then this prop has a very good chance of hitting. The over sitting at 54 or so means seven touchdowns potentially. If you divide that out then it's around 14 or so yards a pop, and you know that KC will uncork one long one. This seems rather generous.

 

Trae Young Points + Rebounds + Assists - 0.5 > Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards (-110)

This wager is very tilted towards the basketball player in my opinion. Sanders has just 10 receptions for 128 yards on 17 targets in the last five games. Since joining the Niners, he's had over 60 receiving yards just three times. Meanwhile, Young is smoking hot right now. Collecting the rebounds and dishing out the assists only boost his numbers, as he's doing the little things as well. Dallas is a tough team, but I think the young Hawk can easily get to 50 or so when you combine the categories, making it an appealing play on Super Sunday.

 

Nikola Jokic Points + Rebounds + Assists - 11.5 > Demarcus Robinson receiving yards (-110)

Once again, this wager is slanted towards the basketball player. Robinson has just eigh receptions for 106 yards on 15 targets over the past six games. Average that out and you get around 18 yards a contest. Jokic is averaging 19.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game this season, which gives a big enough cushion to make the 11.5-point loss feel small. It could be very tight, but I think that the All-Star center will win this wager.

 

Nebraska-Omaha 1st half points + 4.5 > Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards (-110)

I pointed out above how I think there's some value going against Sanders' receiving yards. The Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are a rather potent offensive team (73.2 ppg) and put up 45 in the first half in their first meeting with South Dakota. They've scored between 35-40 points in the opening half in three of their last five home games. I'll take a chance that Sanders continues to fail and not be part of the game plan.

 

Wright State/Green Bay Points +74.5 > Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards (-110)

I love to see this Horizon League game on the prop list. These two teams played back on Dec. 28 with the score ending up 90-84. According to KenPom, Wright State has the 45th quickest tempo while Green Bay plays faster (17th). Jimmy G has thrown for 200 yards or less eight times this season.

 

Favorite Underdog Props (EVEN or better)

 

Yes, both teams make 33-yard FGs or longer (EVEN)

I love taking this prop because of the value. Both of these kickers are pretty solid with Harrison Butker being 16-of-19 from 40-plus, while Robbie Gould is 8-of-14. I like this thing even if it falls below even. This prop has hit in three of the last four Super Bowls.

 

Under 4.5 sacks (+110)

I think there's some good value here with the under because people see how good these defensive lines are and are taking the over. Patrick Mahomes has been sacked less than 20 times this season, while Jimmy Garoppolo has been sacked more, but how many opportunities will he get to throw it?

 

Patrick Mahomes will throw an interception (+110)

I'm just playing a hunch here that he will throw a pick. Mahomes doesn't throw a ton of them ⁠— five in 16 games this season ⁠— but if San Francisco gets some pressure, maybe they force him into a mistake or two. They have picked off 16 passes in 18 games. Plus, don't forget the end-of-half Hail Mary, which could occur. Only take this if it's plus.

 

Largest Lead Under 14.5 points (+110)

We have one of the closest spreads in Super Bowl history, and this is the number for the largest lead? I don't understand it, and I certainly don't understand most people taking the over. I guess it goes along with people betting on Kansas City, but I don't see this game getting away from either team like that.

 

Kyle Juszczyk to score (+800)

There's really no analysis here to this one. The fullback has just one touchdown and didn't register any stats in the postseason so far. I just have a hunch head coach Kyle Shanahan has a play or two for his fullback.

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

Event Date: 
Sunday, February 2, 2020 - 18:30
Event Location: 
Hard Rock Stadium, 347 Don Shula Dr, Miami Gardens, FL 33056
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