I said last week Indianapolis Colts running back Donald Brown was a good flex play against the Carolina Panthers terrible run defense. Brown produced with a 16.2-point fantasy day against Carolina, just his second double-digit fantasy day of the season.
That was last week.
Now the Colts travel to play the New England Patriots, their 11th-ranked rush defense (102.4 YPG), second-ranked offense (429.5 YPG) and third-ranked scoring offense (30.1 PPG). And Indianapolis rolls out Dan Orlovsky to replace Curtis Painter as the Colts’ starting QB with the Colts already having the 31st-ranked team when it comes to fantasy points per game from the RB position.
Where are Brown’s chances to produce going to come from against New England when the Colts are down double digits?
Since the 80 yards and a score made for Brown’s best day of the season, let’s look at the last time New England allowed a running back to get at least those numbers. You have to go back to Week 5 when Shonn Greene carried 21 times for 83 yards and a score and caught two balls for nine yards in a 30-21 defeat.
I don’t see Brown getting 21 carries. I don’t see the Colts scoring 21 points. I don’t see where Brown can help out your fantasy roster in Week 13.
The Colts have not had a back carry more than Joseph Addai’s 17 times in Week 3 at Pittsburgh and have not have over 80 yards since Delone Carter’s 89 in Week 7 at New Orleans and Addai’s 86 in Week 3 against Pittsburgh.
In games against top-12 scoring offenses — Week 1 at Houston, Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh, Week 7 at New Orleans and Week 9 vs. Atlanta — the Colts’ lead back has carried 8 times, 17 times, 10 times and 16 times. The lead back averages 11 fantasy points in those four games.
So hope you had Brown in last week and enjoyed his day. It was the last like that for him this season with the Patriots, Ravens, Titans and Texans to close out the fantasy season.
By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter