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Joe Flacco Won't Score Over 16 Fantasy Points against the Chargers

What do we do with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco in Week 15 at San Diego?

A week after scoring 4.2 fantasy points against Cleveland, thanks to RB Ray Rice running wild, Flacco bounced back with 16.08 points against Indianapolis.

We could look at trends, if you put any stock in them, and how Flacco has done this season after scoring at least 16 points.

In four-point passing TD leagues, he scored 20.96 in Week 1 and followed with 9.88 at Tennessee. He scored 28.26 the next week at St. Louis and followed with 3.22. It then took until Week 11 for Flacco to reach at least 16 points, scoring 17.6 against Cincinnati, which he followed with 10.64 against San Francisco.

So the trend is three games above 16 fantasy points prior to last week and drop offs of 11.08, 25.04 and 6.96 the following weeks for an average drop of 14.36 points after 16-point performance.

Now he gets the Chargers, who are favorable to running backs over the last five weeks and ho-hum against quarterbacks.

Baltimore brings a hot RB in Ray Rice — 497 yards rushing, 177 yards receiving, 24 catches and four TDs in the last five weeks — and an average QB in Flacco that you never know what you’re going to get.

In the past five weeks against RBs, San Diego has faced C.J. Spiller (56 total yards), Maurice Jones-Drew (188 total yards and 1 TD), Willis McGahee (117 rushing yards), Matt Forte (85 total yards) and Michael Bush (242 total yards and 1 TD) for an average of 17.76 fantasy points in Athlon’s half-PPR scoring format. All told, the Chargers are 18th against fantasy RBs over the last five weeks.

In the last five weeks against QBs, the Chargers have faced Ryan Fitzpatrick (176 yards, 2 INTs), Blaine Gabbert (195 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), Tim Tebow (143 yards, 1 TD), Jay Cutler (286 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD) and Carson Palmer (299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). All told, the Chargers are 20th against fantasy QBs over the last five weeks.

So, again, what do we do with Flacco this week? Trends say he won’t produce. The Chargers defense is averaging right around, oddly enough, 16 points per game allowed to QBs the last five weeks.

There’s more upside to starting Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Rex Grossman and Andy Dalton over Flacco because I think the chance of being guaranteed the 16 from these four is greater than hoping Flacco will be consistent enough to get there. Plus, the success Rice has had this season on the ground scares me away from the Raven QB.

By Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter