What do you want out of Donald Brown to consider the Indianapolis Colts running back a decent flex play against the Houston Texans in Week 16?
If it’s 10 points, then Brown could get you right at that number — and you might have to wait the entire 60 minutes for it to happen. There are two problems in playing Brown Thursday night: 1.) The Texans having allowed the lead ball carrier to cross the goal line just twice since Week 4. 2.) Brown’s own teammate, Joseph Addai.
Last week against the Titans it took a late, 80-yard touchdown to get Brown into double digits for the third time in four weeks — he was at 81 yards and one catch for two yards before the late score for (8.8 fantasy points).
Over the last four weeks Houston, No. 2 against fantasy RBs this season, has allowed a decent amount of yardage to feature backs.
Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 99 yards and had 67 receiving yards in Week 12, Cedric Benson had 91 yards rushing in Week 14 and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 104 yards rushing and one TD. Williams last week and Jones-Drew in Week 8 are the only two lead ball carriers to get in the end zone since Week 4 against Houston.
But the larger scope, let’s say the last seven weeks, the Texans are allowing the lead back 9.01 fantasy points per game, while Brown is averaging 11.5 points per game in theat time.
Williams and Stewart are much like Brown and Addai. Williams had 15 carries to Stewart’s 11 last week and Williams posted 61 yards and a score to Stewart’s 43 rushing yards and two catches for eight yards. Last week against Tennessee, Brown had 16 carries, 161 yards and a score (80 on the one run) and one catch for two yards; Addai had 11 carries for 20 yards and two catches for seven yards. It’s the second time in three weeks that both Brown and Addai have had double-digit touches.
Obviously, Brown is the hotter hand, but with what the Texans have done in keeping opposing RBs out of the end zone for the majority of the season and Addai still chipping away at touches, I’d be hard-pressed to see the lead ball carrier for the Colts get into double digits.
And think the Texans aren’t embarrassed about seeing a seven-game win streak ended by the Panthers last week with a 1-13 Colts team on the horizon?
Let’s call it a split between what Brown is averaging and what the Texans are allowing, and if you are satisfied with 10 points from a flex, then throw Brown in your lineup.
Corby A. Yarbrough @Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter